CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-11-02T03:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-11-02T03:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27547/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the large dimming region centered around N25E25 which begins to dim around 2023-11-02T03:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Faint field line movement is visible above the eruption in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with post eruptive loops starting to form around 2023-11-02T04:30Z. ICME arrival signature is characterized by a sharp jump in magnetic field from already elevated 14 nT (after arrival a day before) to 25 nT, then gradually increasing to 34 nT, accompanied by rapid rotations of all three magnetic field components and by a jump in solar wind speed from 320 km/s to 430 km/s. There is a corresponding increase in ion density and temperature. Further analysis of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian (NASA/GSFC) can be found in DONKI: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/IPS/27602/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-05T08:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-05T12:02Z
Prediction Method: ELEvoHI
Prediction Method Note:
To run ELEvoHI the time-elongation profile from STEREO-A/HI beacon data is used. Parameters to run the model (single run mode): Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 Half width (within the ecliptic): 45 degrees Propagation direction: W25 (from CME source region) Results: The CME is decelerated by the ambient solar wind. Elongation range used for prediction: 4.7 - 19.6 degree Corresponding heliocentric distance [AU]: 0.09 - 0.35 AU Corresponding heliocentric distance [Rsun]: 20.3 - 75.3 Rsun =========================================== || Most accurate fitting for solar wind speed: 500 [km/s]. || Resulting drag parameter: 1.27e-07 [1/km]. || Minimum mean residual: -0.17 [Rsun]. || Initial time: 2023-11-02 13:52 UT || Initial distance: 20.3 [Rsun]. || Initial speed: 690 [km/s]. =========================================== ------------------------------------ Arrival time at STEREO-A: 2023-11-05 12:42 Arrival speed at STEREO-A: 484 km/s ------------------------------------ Arrival time at Solar Orbiter: 2023-11-04 00:22 Arrival speed at Solar Orbiter: 546 km/s ------------------------------------ Arrival time at L1: 2023-11-05 12:02 Arrival speed at L1: 502 km/s ------------------------------------Lead Time: 44.28 hour(s)
Difference: -3.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) on 2023-11-03T11:53Z
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